Learning to Bid with Unknown Private Values in Budget-Constrained First-Price Auctions

The transition to First-Price Auctions (FPA) in digital advertising has spurred significant research, yet existing work typically assumes access to a valuation oracle, ignoring the reality that values must be inferred from censored data. While Linear Treatment Effect (LTE) models address this by learning value uplift, they have not been adapted to realistic settings with hard Budget constraints or Return-on-Spend (RoS) targets requiring regret and violation control. In this work, we propose a unified primal-dual framework for constrained FPAs that jointly learns the latent LTE valuation parameters and the competitor's bid distribution. This simultaneous learning introduces a critical technical challenge: the estimation error is dynamically scaled by the Lagrangian multiplier, potentially leading to unbounded regret. We resolve this by leveraging a strong Slater condition and a novel adaptive burn-in procedure to stabilize the dual variables. Our approach achieves near-optimal regret guarantees, providing the first theoretically grounded solution for constrained bidding with latent valuations.

The (Marginal) Value of a Search Ad: An Online Causal Framework for Repeated Second-price Auctions

Existing auto-bidding algorithms in digital advertising often treat the value of an ad opportunity as the revenue obtained when an ad is shown and/or clicked, and bid accordingly. This can lead to wasteful spending because the true value is the marginal gain from paid exposure: even without winning a sponsored slot, an advertiser may still earn revenue via an organic search result (e.g., on Google or Amazon). Motivated by recent work, we model ad value as a treatment effect--the outcome difference between winning and losing the auction--and study online learning for bidding in second-price (Vickrey) auctions under this causal perspective. We develop algorithms that attain rate-optimal regret under several feedback models. A key ingredient exploits the information revealed by the second-price payment rule, which strictly improves regret relative to analogous learning problems in first-price auctions.

Robust Assortment Optimization from Observational Data

Assortment optimization is a fundamental challenge in modern retail and recommendation systems, where the goal is to select a subset of products that maximizes expected revenue under complex customer choice behaviors. While recent advances in data-driven methods have leveraged historical data to learn and optimize assortments, these approaches typically rely on strong assumptions -- namely, the stability of customer preferences and the correctness of the underlying choice models. However, such assumptions frequently break in real-world scenarios due to preference shifts and model misspecification, leading to poor generalization and revenue loss. Motivated by this limitation, we propose a robust framework for data-driven assortment optimization that accounts for potential distributional shifts in customer choice behavior. Our approach models potential preference shift from a nominal choice model that generates data and seeks to maximize worst-case expected revenue. We first establish the computational tractability of robust assortment planning when the nominal model is known, then advance to the data-driven setting, where we design statistically optimal algorithms that minimize the data requirements while maintaining robustness. Our theoretical analysis provides both upper bounds and matching lower bounds on the sample complexity, offering theoretical guarantees for robust generalization. Notably, we uncover and identify the notion of ``robust item-wise coverage'' as the minimal data requirement to enable sample-efficient robust assortment learning. Our work bridges the gap between robustness and statistical efficiency in assortment learning, contributing new insights and tools for reliable assortment optimization under uncertainty.

Optimal Bayesian Stopping for Efficient Inference of Consistent LLM Answers

A simple strategy for improving LLM accuracy, especially in math and reasoning problems, is to sample multiple responses and submit the answer most consistently reached. In this paper we leverage Bayesian prior information to save on sampling costs, stopping once sufficient consistency is reached. Although the exact posterior is computationally intractable, we further introduce an efficient "L-aggregated" stopping policy that tracks only the L-1 most frequent answer counts. Theoretically, we prove that L=3 is all you need: this coarse approximation is sufficient to achieve asymptotic optimality, and strictly dominates prior-free baselines, while having a fast posterior computation. Empirically, this identifies the most consistent (i.e., mode) LLM answer using fewer samples, and can achieve similar answer accuracy while cutting the number of LLM calls (i.e., saving on LLM inference costs) by up to 50%.

Surface-based Molecular Design with Multi-modal Flow Matching

Therapeutic peptides show promise in targeting previously undruggable binding sites, with recent advancements in deep generative models enabling full-atom peptide co-design for specific protein receptors. However, the critical role of molecular surfaces in protein-protein interactions (PPIs) has been underexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose an omni-design peptides generation paradigm, called SurfFlow, a novel surface-based generative algorithm that enables comprehensive co-design of sequence, structure, and surface for peptides. SurfFlow employs a multi-modality conditional flow matching (CFM) architecture to learn distributions of surface geometries and biochemical properties, enhancing peptide binding accuracy. Evaluated on the comprehensive PepMerge benchmark, SurfFlow consistently outperforms full-atom baselines across all metrics. These results highlight the advantages of considering molecular surfaces in de novo peptide discovery and demonstrate the potential of integrating multiple protein modalities for more effective therapeutic peptide discovery.

DR-SAC: Distributionally Robust Soft Actor-Critic for Reinforcement Learning under Uncertainty

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved significant success, yet its application in real-world scenarios is often hindered by a lack of robustness to environmental uncertainties. To solve this challenge, some robust RL algorithms have been proposed, but most are limited to tabular settings. In this work, we propose Distributionally Robust Soft Actor-Critic (DR-SAC), a novel algorithm designed to enhance the robustness of the state-of-the-art Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm. DR-SAC aims to maximize the expected value with entropy against the worst possible transition model lying in an uncertainty set. A distributionally robust version of the soft policy iteration is derived with a convergence guarantee. For settings where nominal distributions are unknown, such as offline RL, a generative modeling approach is proposed to estimate the required nominal distributions from data. Furthermore, experimental results on a range of continuous control benchmark tasks demonstrate our algorithm achieves up to $9.8$ times the average reward of the SAC baseline under common perturbations. Additionally, compared with existing robust reinforcement learning algorithms, DR-SAC significantly improves computing efficiency and applicability to large-scale problems.

Improved Last-Iterate Convergence of Shuffling Gradient Methods for Nonsmooth Convex Optimization

We study the convergence of the shuffling gradient method, a popular algorithm employed to minimize the finite-sum function with regularization, in which functions are passed to apply (Proximal) Gradient Descent (GD) one by one whose order is determined by a permutation on the indices of functions. In contrast to its easy implementation and effective performance in practice, the theoretical understanding remains limited. A recent advance by (Liu & Zhou, 2024b) establishes the first last-iterate convergence results under various settings, especially proving the optimal rates for smooth (strongly) convex optimization. However, their bounds for nonsmooth (strongly) convex functions are only as fast as Proximal GD. In this work, we provide the first improved last-iterate analysis for the nonsmooth case demonstrating that the widely used Random Reshuffle ($\textsf{RR}$) and Single Shuffle ($\textsf{SS}$) strategies are both provably faster than Proximal GD, reflecting the benefit of randomness. As an important implication, we give the first (nearly) optimal convergence result for the suffix average under the $\textsf{RR}$ sampling scheme in the general convex case, matching the lower bound shown by (Koren et al., 2022).

Joint Value Estimation and Bidding in Repeated First-Price Auctions

We study regret minimization in repeated first-price auctions (FPAs), where a bidder observes only the realized outcome after each auction -- win or loss. This setup reflects practical scenarios in online display advertising where the actual value of an impression depends on the difference between two potential outcomes, such as clicks or conversion rates, when the auction is won versus lost. We analyze three outcome models: (1) adversarial outcomes without features, (2) linear potential outcomes with features, and (3) linear treatment effects in features. For each setting, we propose algorithms that jointly estimate private values and optimize bidding strategies, achieving near-optimal regret bounds. Notably, our framework enjoys a unique feature that the treatments are also actively chosen, and hence eliminates the need for the overlap condition commonly required in causal inference.

Learning an Optimal Assortment Policy under Observational Data

We study the fundamental problem of offline assortment optimization under the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, where sellers must determine the optimal subset of the products to offer based solely on historical customer choice data. While most existing approaches to learning-based assortment optimization focus on the online learning of the optimal assortment through repeated interactions with customers, such exploration can be costly or even impractical in many real-world settings. In this paper, we consider the offline learning paradigm and investigate the minimal data requirements for efficient offline assortment optimization. To this end, we introduce Pessimistic Rank-Breaking (PRB), an algorithm that combines rank-breaking with pessimistic estimation. We prove that PRB is nearly minimax optimal by establishing the tight suboptimality upper bound and a nearly matching lower bound. This further shows that "optimal item coverage" - where each item in the optimal assortment appears sufficiently often in the historical data - is both sufficient and necessary for efficient offline learning. This significantly relaxes the previous requirement of observing the complete optimal assortment in the data. Our results provide fundamental insights into the data requirements for offline assortment optimization under the MNL model.

Nonconvex Stochastic Optimization under Heavy-Tailed Noises: Optimal Convergence without Gradient Clipping

Recently, the study of heavy-tailed noises in first-order nonconvex stochastic optimization has gotten a lot of attention since it was recognized as a more realistic condition as suggested by many empirical observations. Specifically, the stochastic noise (the difference between the stochastic and true gradient) is considered only to have a finite $\mathfrak{p}$-th moment where $\mathfrak{p}\in\left(1,2\right]$ instead of assuming it always satisfies the classical finite variance assumption. To deal with this more challenging setting, people have proposed different algorithms and proved them to converge at an optimal $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{3\mathfrak{p}-2}})$ rate for smooth objectives after $T$ iterations. Notably, all these new-designed algorithms are based on the same technique - gradient clipping. Naturally, one may want to know whether the clipping method is a necessary ingredient and the only way to guarantee convergence under heavy-tailed noises. In this work, by revisiting the existing Batched Normalized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum (Batched NSGDM) algorithm, we provide the first convergence result under heavy-tailed noises but without gradient clipping. Concretely, we prove that Batched NSGDM can achieve the optimal $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{3\mathfrak{p}-2}})$ rate even under the relaxed smooth condition. More interestingly, we also establish the first $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{2\mathfrak{p}}})$ convergence rate in the case where the tail index $\mathfrak{p}$ is unknown in advance, which is arguably the common scenario in practice.